COP21 Seminar Takeaways

Source: COP21

Thursday I attended Jesse Scott's talk 'The UN Climate Conference 2015: what is it trying to do and can it succeed?' hosted by UCL Department of Political Science. The UN Climate Conference 2015 also know as COP21 will take place from November 30th to December 11th in Paris, and the 196 governing bodies in attendance are there to ensure climate-related goals are being met. Scott brought both good news and bad news going into the conference.

Bad News: 

Scott mentioned that the emissions being cut would not be enough to stay below 2^oC. Nations are trying to go green while still growing their economy. Additionally, she pointed out that nations, such as the US, are slow to act because they desire national consensus. However, this may backfire because the challenge will be even larger in the future.

Good News:

Scott was "slightly more than cautiously optimistic" that COP21 will turn out better than the Copenhagen "failure". Scott pointed out significant changes in the political landscape over the past 6 years including:

• Cheaper green technology, such as solar panels.
• Investment groups and banks who see potential in renewable energy.
• Companies from all sectors, including oil, who know that climate change will prevent business as normal.
• Health experts worried about how warmer temperature will affect disease.
• Militaries who can no longer balance being combat ready and first responders for extreme weather.
• Support from people such as Pope Francis, movie stars, and You! Public opinion helps drive what politicians are willing to offer.

My Takeaways:

I am pessimistically hopeful (as odd as that sounds) that countries may be able to cut more CO₂ emissions to get closer to the 2^oC goal. However after Scott's talk I am reasonably optimistic that they will be able to sign some meaningful agreement. This is based on the number of parties, representing a whole spectrum of backgrounds, who are pressuring governments during this negotiation.